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Cracovia Kraków II vs Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Cracovia Kraków II
Cracovia Kraków II
FT
4 – 1
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski
10/30/2021III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 15Baza treningowa KS Cracovia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Cracovia Kraków II51%
×Draw23%
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cracovia Kraków II
1.88
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski
1.29

Cracovia Kraków II creates 46% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 70 away

creates per match

Cracovia Kraków II
1.87
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski
1.30

allows per match

Cracovia Kraków II
1.27
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski
1.89

finishing

Cracovia Kraków II+0.00on par
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cracovia Kraków II ↓

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Cracovia Kraków II or draw
74%
Cracovia Kraków II or Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski
77%
Draw or Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski
49%

Winning margin

Cracovia Kraków II wins by 2+
29%
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Cracovia Kraków II 1+ goals
85%
Cracovia Kraków II 2+ goals
56%
Cracovia Kraków II 3+ goals
29%
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski 1+ goals
72%
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski 2+ goals
37%
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Cracovia Kraków II (draw refunded)
66%
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cracovia Kraków II at home — creates 1.87, concedes 1.27 · 70 matches

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.89 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cracovia Kraków II attack 1.87 + Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.88

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski attack 1.30 + Cracovia Kraków II defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Cracovia Kraków II scores more
51%
level
23%
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski scores more
26%

Cracovia Kraków II at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Cracovia Kraków II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 4: Cracovia Kraków II 4–1 Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski

Cracovia Kraków II beat Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski 4-1 in III Liga - Group 4 on October 30, 2021.

The match was played at Baza treningowa KS Cracovia in Rączna.