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Cracovia Kraków II vs Korona Rzeszow — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Cracovia Kraków II
Cracovia Kraków II
FT
3 – 1
Korona Rzeszow
Korona Rzeszow
9/4/2021III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 6Boisko przy ul. Wielickiej

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Cracovia Kraków II56%
×Draw21%
Korona Rzeszow23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cracovia Kraków II
2.06
Korona Rzeszow
1.25

Cracovia Kraków II creates 65% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 17 away

creates per match

Cracovia Kraków II
1.87
Korona Rzeszow
1.24

allows per match

Cracovia Kraków II
1.27
Korona Rzeszow
2.24

finishing

Cracovia Kraków II+0.00on par
Korona Rzeszow+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cracovia Kraków II ↓

Korona Rzeszow →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Cracovia Kraków II or draw
77%
Cracovia Kraków II or Korona Rzeszow
79%
Draw or Korona Rzeszow
44%

Winning margin

Cracovia Kraków II wins by 2+
33%
Korona Rzeszow wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Cracovia Kraków II 1+ goals
87%
Cracovia Kraków II 2+ goals
61%
Cracovia Kraków II 3+ goals
34%
Korona Rzeszow 1+ goals
71%
Korona Rzeszow 2+ goals
36%
Korona Rzeszow 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Cracovia Kraków II (draw refunded)
71%
Korona Rzeszow (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cracovia Kraków II at home — creates 1.87, concedes 1.27 · 70 matches

Korona Rzeszow away — creates 1.24, concedes 2.24 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cracovia Kraków II attack 1.87 + Korona Rzeszow defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 2.06

Korona Rzeszow attack 1.24 + Cracovia Kraków II defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Cracovia Kraków II scores more
56%
level
21%
Korona Rzeszow scores more
23%

Cracovia Kraków II at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Cracovia Kraków II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cracovia Kraków II vs Korona Rzeszow

Cracovia Kraków II beat Korona Rzeszow 3-1 in III Liga - Group 4 on September 4, 2021.

The match was played at Boisko przy ul. Wielickiej in Kraków.