Cracovia Kraków II 1–1 Jutrzenka Giebułtów

Cracovia Kraków II

FT

1 – 1

Jutrzenka Giebułtów

3/27/2021

III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 26Baza treningowa KS Cracovia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Cracovia Kraków II63%

×Draw19%

Jutrzenka Giebułtów17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cracovia Kraków IIExpected goals in this matchJutrzenka Giebułtów

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.24

1.08

Cracovia Kraków II

2.24

Jutrzenka Giebułtów

1.08

Cracovia Kraków II creates 107% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 20 away

1.87

creates per match

0.90

1.27

allows per match

2.60

creates per match

Cracovia Kraków II

1.87

Jutrzenka Giebułtów

0.90

allows per match

Cracovia Kraków II

1.27

Jutrzenka Giebułtów

2.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cracovia Kraków II+0.00on par

Jutrzenka Giebułtów+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cracovia Kraków II ↓

Jutrzenka Giebułtów →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Cracovia Kraków II or draw

83%

Cracovia Kraków II or Jutrzenka Giebułtów

81%

Draw or Jutrzenka Giebułtów

37%

Winning margin

Cracovia Kraków II wins by 2+

40%

Jutrzenka Giebułtów wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Cracovia Kraków II 1+ goals

89%

Cracovia Kraków II 2+ goals

65%

Cracovia Kraków II 3+ goals

38%

Jutrzenka Giebułtów 1+ goals

66%

Jutrzenka Giebułtów 2+ goals

29%

Jutrzenka Giebułtów 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Cracovia Kraków II (draw refunded)

79%

Jutrzenka Giebułtów (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cracovia Kraków II at home — creates 1.87, concedes 1.27 · 70 matches

Jutrzenka Giebułtów away — creates 0.90, concedes 2.60 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cracovia Kraków II attack 1.87 + Jutrzenka Giebułtów defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.24

Jutrzenka Giebułtów attack 0.90 + Cracovia Kraków II defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Cracovia Kraków II scores more

63%

level

19%

Jutrzenka Giebułtów scores more

17%

Cracovia Kraków II at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Cracovia Kraków II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff