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CR Khemis Zemamra vs UTS Rabat — Botola Pro 2025

CR Khemis Zemamra
CR Khemis Zemamra
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
UTS Rabat
UTS Rabat
5/8/2025Botola ProBotola Pro · Round 29Stade Ahmed Choukri

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

CR Khemis Zemamra42%
×Draw28%
UTS Rabat30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CR Khemis Zemamra
1.31
UTS Rabat
1.05

CR Khemis Zemamra creates 25% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 61 away

creates per match

CR Khemis Zemamra
1.25
UTS Rabat
1.07

allows per match

CR Khemis Zemamra
1.03
UTS Rabat
1.36

finishing

CR Khemis Zemamra+0.00on par
UTS Rabat+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CR Khemis Zemamra ↓

UTS Rabat →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

CR Khemis Zemamra or draw
70%
CR Khemis Zemamra or UTS Rabat
72%
Draw or UTS Rabat
58%

Winning margin

CR Khemis Zemamra wins by 2+
19%
UTS Rabat wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

CR Khemis Zemamra 1+ goals
73%
CR Khemis Zemamra 2+ goals
38%
CR Khemis Zemamra 3+ goals
14%
UTS Rabat 1+ goals
65%
UTS Rabat 2+ goals
28%
UTS Rabat 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

CR Khemis Zemamra (draw refunded)
59%
UTS Rabat (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CR Khemis Zemamra at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.03 · 75 matches

UTS Rabat away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.36 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CR Khemis Zemamra attack 1.25 + UTS Rabat defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.31

UTS Rabat attack 1.07 + CR Khemis Zemamra defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

CR Khemis Zemamra scores more
42%
level
28%
UTS Rabat scores more
30%

CR Khemis Zemamra at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "CR Khemis Zemamra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Botola Pro: CR Khemis Zemamra 3–0 UTS Rabat

CR Khemis Zemamra beat UTS Rabat 3-0 in Botola Pro on May 8, 2025.

The match was played at Stade Ahmed Choukri in Zemamra.