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CR Khemis Zemamra vs Sidi Kacem — Botola 2 2025

CR Khemis Zemamra
CR Khemis Zemamra
FT
3 – 1
Sidi Kacem
Sidi Kacem
12/22/2018Botola 2Botola 2 · Round 14Stade Municipal Khemiss des Zemamra (Zemamra)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

CR Khemis Zemamra50%
×Draw29%
Sidi Kacem21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CR Khemis Zemamra
1.29
Sidi Kacem
0.72

CR Khemis Zemamra creates 79% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 30 away

creates per match

CR Khemis Zemamra
1.24
Sidi Kacem
0.87

allows per match

CR Khemis Zemamra
0.56
Sidi Kacem
1.33

finishing

CR Khemis Zemamra+0.00on par
Sidi Kacem+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CR Khemis Zemamra ↓

Sidi Kacem →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–110%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

CR Khemis Zemamra or draw
79%
CR Khemis Zemamra or Sidi Kacem
71%
Draw or Sidi Kacem
50%

Winning margin

CR Khemis Zemamra wins by 2+
23%
Sidi Kacem wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

CR Khemis Zemamra 1+ goals
72%
CR Khemis Zemamra 2+ goals
37%
CR Khemis Zemamra 3+ goals
14%
Sidi Kacem 1+ goals
51%
Sidi Kacem 2+ goals
16%
Sidi Kacem 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

CR Khemis Zemamra (draw refunded)
71%
Sidi Kacem (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CR Khemis Zemamra at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.56 · 45 matches

Sidi Kacem away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.33 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CR Khemis Zemamra attack 1.24 + Sidi Kacem defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.29

Sidi Kacem attack 0.87 + CR Khemis Zemamra defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

CR Khemis Zemamra scores more
50%
level
29%
Sidi Kacem scores more
21%

CR Khemis Zemamra at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "CR Khemis Zemamra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: CR Khemis Zemamra vs Sidi Kacem

CR Khemis Zemamra beat Sidi Kacem 3-1 in Botola 2 on December 22, 2018.

The match was played at Stade Municipal Khemiss des Zemamra (Zemamra).