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CR Khemis Zemamra vs Riadi Salmi — Botola Pro 2025

CR Khemis Zemamra
CR Khemis Zemamra
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Riadi Salmi
Riadi Salmi
11/26/2023Botola ProBotola Pro · Round 10Stade Ahmed Choukri

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

CR Khemis Zemamra44%
×Draw28%
Riadi Salmi28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CR Khemis Zemamra
1.34
Riadi Salmi
1.00

CR Khemis Zemamra creates 34% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 61 away

creates per match

CR Khemis Zemamra
1.25
Riadi Salmi
0.97

allows per match

CR Khemis Zemamra
1.03
Riadi Salmi
1.44

finishing

CR Khemis Zemamra+0.00on par
Riadi Salmi+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CR Khemis Zemamra ↓

Riadi Salmi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

CR Khemis Zemamra or draw
72%
CR Khemis Zemamra or Riadi Salmi
72%
Draw or Riadi Salmi
56%

Winning margin

CR Khemis Zemamra wins by 2+
21%
Riadi Salmi wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

CR Khemis Zemamra 1+ goals
74%
CR Khemis Zemamra 2+ goals
39%
CR Khemis Zemamra 3+ goals
15%
Riadi Salmi 1+ goals
63%
Riadi Salmi 2+ goals
26%
Riadi Salmi 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

CR Khemis Zemamra (draw refunded)
61%
Riadi Salmi (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CR Khemis Zemamra at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.03 · 75 matches

Riadi Salmi away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.44 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CR Khemis Zemamra attack 1.25 + Riadi Salmi defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.34

Riadi Salmi attack 0.97 + CR Khemis Zemamra defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

CR Khemis Zemamra scores more
44%
level
28%
Riadi Salmi scores more
28%

CR Khemis Zemamra at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "CR Khemis Zemamra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: CR Khemis Zemamra vs Riadi Salmi

CR Khemis Zemamra beat Riadi Salmi 1-0 in Botola Pro on November 26, 2023.

The match was played at Stade Ahmed Choukri in Zemamra.