CR Khemis Zemamra 3–4 Mouloudia Oujda

CR Khemis Zemamra

FT

3 – 4

HT: 2 – 1

Mouloudia Oujda

5/23/2021

Botola Pro · Round 19Stade El Massira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

CR Khemis Zemamra43%

×Draw28%

Mouloudia Oujda29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CR Khemis ZemamraExpected goals in this matchMouloudia Oujda

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

0.98

CR Khemis Zemamra

1.27

Mouloudia Oujda

0.98

CR Khemis Zemamra creates 30% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 90 away

1.25

creates per match

0.93

1.03

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

CR Khemis Zemamra

1.25

Mouloudia Oujda

0.93

allows per match

CR Khemis Zemamra

1.03

Mouloudia Oujda

1.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CR Khemis Zemamra+0.00on par

Mouloudia Oujda+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CR Khemis Zemamra ↓

Mouloudia Oujda →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

CR Khemis Zemamra or draw

71%

CR Khemis Zemamra or Mouloudia Oujda

72%

Draw or Mouloudia Oujda

57%

Winning margin

CR Khemis Zemamra wins by 2+

19%

Mouloudia Oujda wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

CR Khemis Zemamra 1+ goals

72%

CR Khemis Zemamra 2+ goals

36%

CR Khemis Zemamra 3+ goals

14%

Mouloudia Oujda 1+ goals

62%

Mouloudia Oujda 2+ goals

26%

Mouloudia Oujda 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

CR Khemis Zemamra (draw refunded)

60%

Mouloudia Oujda (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CR Khemis Zemamra at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.03 · 75 matches

Mouloudia Oujda away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.28 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CR Khemis Zemamra attack 1.25 + Mouloudia Oujda defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.27

Mouloudia Oujda attack 0.93 + CR Khemis Zemamra defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

CR Khemis Zemamra scores more

43%

level

28%

Mouloudia Oujda scores more

29%

CR Khemis Zemamra at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "CR Khemis Zemamra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff