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CR Khemis Zemamra vs Moghreb Tetouan — Botola 2 2025

CR Khemis Zemamra
CR Khemis Zemamra
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Moghreb Tetouan
Moghreb Tetouan
5/18/2022Botola 2Botola 2 · Round 28Stade Ahmed Choukri

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

CR Khemis Zemamra40%
×Draw31%
Moghreb Tetouan28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CR Khemis Zemamra
1.07
Moghreb Tetouan
0.84

CR Khemis Zemamra creates 27% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 30 away

creates per match

CR Khemis Zemamra
1.24
Moghreb Tetouan
1.13

allows per match

CR Khemis Zemamra
0.56
Moghreb Tetouan
0.90

finishing

CR Khemis Zemamra+0.00on par
Moghreb Tetouan+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CR Khemis Zemamra ↓

Moghreb Tetouan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

CR Khemis Zemamra or draw
72%
CR Khemis Zemamra or Moghreb Tetouan
69%
Draw or Moghreb Tetouan
60%

Winning margin

CR Khemis Zemamra wins by 2+
16%
Moghreb Tetouan wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

CR Khemis Zemamra 1+ goals
66%
CR Khemis Zemamra 2+ goals
29%
CR Khemis Zemamra 3+ goals
9%
Moghreb Tetouan 1+ goals
57%
Moghreb Tetouan 2+ goals
21%
Moghreb Tetouan 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

CR Khemis Zemamra (draw refunded)
59%
Moghreb Tetouan (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CR Khemis Zemamra at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.56 · 45 matches

Moghreb Tetouan away — creates 1.13, concedes 0.90 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CR Khemis Zemamra attack 1.24 + Moghreb Tetouan defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.07

Moghreb Tetouan attack 1.13 + CR Khemis Zemamra defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

CR Khemis Zemamra scores more
40%
level
31%
Moghreb Tetouan scores more
28%

CR Khemis Zemamra at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "CR Khemis Zemamra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: CR Khemis Zemamra vs Moghreb Tetouan

CR Khemis Zemamra beat Moghreb Tetouan 2-1 in Botola 2 on May 18, 2022.

The match was played at Stade Ahmed Choukri in Zemamra.