CR Khemis Zemamra 1–1 Maghreb Fès: Result & Stats

CR Khemis Zemamra

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Maghreb Fès

4/23/2025

Botola Pro · Round 27Stade Ahmed Choukri

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

CR Khemis Zemamra38%

×Draw30%

Maghreb Fès32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CR Khemis ZemamraExpected goals in this matchMaghreb Fès

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

1.01

CR Khemis Zemamra

1.13

Maghreb Fès

1.01

CR Khemis Zemamra creates 12% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 90 away

1.25

creates per match

0.99

1.03

allows per match

1.01

creates per match

CR Khemis Zemamra

1.25

Maghreb Fès

0.99

allows per match

CR Khemis Zemamra

1.03

Maghreb Fès

1.01

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CR Khemis Zemamra+0.00on par

Maghreb Fès+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CR Khemis Zemamra ↓

Maghreb Fès →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

CR Khemis Zemamra or draw

68%

CR Khemis Zemamra or Maghreb Fès

70%

Draw or Maghreb Fès

62%

Winning margin

CR Khemis Zemamra wins by 2+

16%

Maghreb Fès wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

CR Khemis Zemamra 1+ goals

68%

CR Khemis Zemamra 2+ goals

31%

CR Khemis Zemamra 3+ goals

11%

Maghreb Fès 1+ goals

64%

Maghreb Fès 2+ goals

27%

Maghreb Fès 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

CR Khemis Zemamra (draw refunded)

54%

Maghreb Fès (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CR Khemis Zemamra at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.03 · 75 matches

Maghreb Fès away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.01 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CR Khemis Zemamra attack 1.25 + Maghreb Fès defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.13

Maghreb Fès attack 0.99 + CR Khemis Zemamra defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

CR Khemis Zemamra scores more

38%

level

30%

Maghreb Fès scores more

32%

CR Khemis Zemamra at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "CR Khemis Zemamra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff