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CR Khemis Zemamra vs Hassania Agadir — Cup 2020

CR Khemis Zemamra
CR Khemis Zemamra
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Hassania Agadir
Hassania Agadiradvanced
M. Bakhkhach 109'
3/12/2022CupCup · Round of 32Stade Ahmed Choukri

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

CR Khemis Zemamra52%
×Draw26%
Hassania Agadir22%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CR Khemis Zemamra
1.50
Hassania Agadir
0.88

CR Khemis Zemamra creates 70% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 6 away

creates per match

CR Khemis Zemamra
2.00
Hassania Agadir
1.50

allows per match

CR Khemis Zemamra
0.25
Hassania Agadir
1.00

finishing

CR Khemis Zemamra+0.00on par
Hassania Agadir+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CR Khemis Zemamra ↓

Hassania Agadir →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

CR Khemis Zemamra or draw
78%
CR Khemis Zemamra or Hassania Agadir
74%
Draw or Hassania Agadir
48%

Winning margin

CR Khemis Zemamra wins by 2+
26%
Hassania Agadir wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

CR Khemis Zemamra 1+ goals
78%
CR Khemis Zemamra 2+ goals
44%
CR Khemis Zemamra 3+ goals
19%
Hassania Agadir 1+ goals
59%
Hassania Agadir 2+ goals
22%
Hassania Agadir 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

CR Khemis Zemamra (draw refunded)
70%
Hassania Agadir (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CR Khemis Zemamra at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.25 · 4 matches

Hassania Agadir away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CR Khemis Zemamra attack 2.00 + Hassania Agadir defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Hassania Agadir attack 1.50 + CR Khemis Zemamra defence 0.25 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

CR Khemis Zemamra scores more
52%
level
26%
Hassania Agadir scores more
22%

CR Khemis Zemamra at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "CR Khemis Zemamra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

109'
M. Bakhkhach

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: CR Khemis Zemamra vs Hassania Agadir

Hassania Agadir beat CR Khemis Zemamra 1-0 in Cup on March 12, 2022.

Goals: M. Bakhkhach (109').

The match was played at Stade Ahmed Choukri in Zemamra.