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CR Khemis Zemamra vs FUS Rabat — Botola Pro 2025

CR Khemis Zemamra
CR Khemis Zemamra
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
FUS Rabat
FUS Rabat
10/27/2024Botola ProBotola Pro · Round 8Stade Ahmed Choukri

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

CR Khemis Zemamra37%
×Draw29%
FUS Rabat33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CR Khemis Zemamra
1.14
FUS Rabat
1.06

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 75 home / 120 away

creates per match

CR Khemis Zemamra
1.25
FUS Rabat
1.09

allows per match

CR Khemis Zemamra
1.03
FUS Rabat
1.02

finishing

CR Khemis Zemamra+0.00on par
FUS Rabat+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CR Khemis Zemamra ↓

FUS Rabat →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

CR Khemis Zemamra or draw
67%
CR Khemis Zemamra or FUS Rabat
71%
Draw or FUS Rabat
63%

Winning margin

CR Khemis Zemamra wins by 2+
15%
FUS Rabat wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

CR Khemis Zemamra 1+ goals
68%
CR Khemis Zemamra 2+ goals
32%
CR Khemis Zemamra 3+ goals
11%
FUS Rabat 1+ goals
65%
FUS Rabat 2+ goals
29%
FUS Rabat 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

CR Khemis Zemamra (draw refunded)
53%
FUS Rabat (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CR Khemis Zemamra at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.03 · 75 matches

FUS Rabat away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.02 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CR Khemis Zemamra attack 1.25 + FUS Rabat defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.14

FUS Rabat attack 1.09 + CR Khemis Zemamra defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

CR Khemis Zemamra scores more
37%
level
29%
FUS Rabat scores more
33%

CR Khemis Zemamra at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "CR Khemis Zemamra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: CR Khemis Zemamra vs FUS Rabat

CR Khemis Zemamra beat FUS Rabat 3-1 in Botola Pro on October 27, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Ahmed Choukri in Zemamra.