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CR Khemis Zemamra vs Chabab Mohammédia — Botola Pro 2025

CR Khemis Zemamra
CR Khemis Zemamra
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Chabab Mohammédia
Chabab Mohammédia
5/15/2021Botola ProBotola Pro · Round 17Stade Larbi Zaouli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

CR Khemis Zemamra47%
×Draw29%
Chabab Mohammédia24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CR Khemis Zemamra
1.27
Chabab Mohammédia
0.83

CR Khemis Zemamra creates 53% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 75 away

creates per match

CR Khemis Zemamra
1.25
Chabab Mohammédia
0.63

allows per match

CR Khemis Zemamra
1.03
Chabab Mohammédia
1.28

finishing

CR Khemis Zemamra+0.00on par
Chabab Mohammédia+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CR Khemis Zemamra ↓

Chabab Mohammédia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

CR Khemis Zemamra or draw
76%
CR Khemis Zemamra or Chabab Mohammédia
71%
Draw or Chabab Mohammédia
53%

Winning margin

CR Khemis Zemamra wins by 2+
21%
Chabab Mohammédia wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

CR Khemis Zemamra 1+ goals
72%
CR Khemis Zemamra 2+ goals
36%
CR Khemis Zemamra 3+ goals
14%
Chabab Mohammédia 1+ goals
56%
Chabab Mohammédia 2+ goals
20%
Chabab Mohammédia 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

CR Khemis Zemamra (draw refunded)
66%
Chabab Mohammédia (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CR Khemis Zemamra at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.03 · 75 matches

Chabab Mohammédia away — creates 0.63, concedes 1.28 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CR Khemis Zemamra attack 1.25 + Chabab Mohammédia defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.27

Chabab Mohammédia attack 0.63 + CR Khemis Zemamra defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

CR Khemis Zemamra scores more
47%
level
29%
Chabab Mohammédia scores more
24%

CR Khemis Zemamra at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "CR Khemis Zemamra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Botola Pro: CR Khemis Zemamra 1–1 Chabab Mohammédia

CR Khemis Zemamra and Chabab Mohammédia drew 1-1 in Botola Pro on May 15, 2021.

The match was played at Stade Larbi Zaouli in Casablanca.