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CR Belouizdad vs US Biskra — Ligue 1 2018

CR Belouizdad
CR Belouizdad
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
US Biskra
US Biskra
4/19/2024Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 23Stade du 5 Juillet 1962

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

CR Belouizdad60%
×Draw25%
US Biskra15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CR Belouizdad
1.59
US Biskra
0.66

CR Belouizdad creates 141% more chances

Season form · 122 home / 92 away

creates per match

CR Belouizdad
1.69
US Biskra
0.64

allows per match

CR Belouizdad
0.68
US Biskra
1.50

finishing

CR Belouizdad+0.00on par
US Biskra+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CR Belouizdad ↓

US Biskra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–17%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

CR Belouizdad or draw
85%
CR Belouizdad or US Biskra
75%
Draw or US Biskra
40%

Winning margin

CR Belouizdad wins by 2+
33%
US Biskra wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

CR Belouizdad 1+ goals
80%
CR Belouizdad 2+ goals
47%
CR Belouizdad 3+ goals
21%
US Biskra 1+ goals
48%
US Biskra 2+ goals
14%
US Biskra 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

CR Belouizdad (draw refunded)
80%
US Biskra (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CR Belouizdad at home — creates 1.69, concedes 0.68 · 122 matches

US Biskra away — creates 0.64, concedes 1.50 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CR Belouizdad attack 1.69 + US Biskra defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.59

US Biskra attack 0.64 + CR Belouizdad defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

CR Belouizdad scores more
60%
level
25%
US Biskra scores more
15%

CR Belouizdad at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "CR Belouizdad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: CR Belouizdad vs US Biskra

CR Belouizdad beat US Biskra 4-0 in Ligue 1 on April 19, 2024.

The match was played at Stade du 5 Juillet 1962 in Algiers.