Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

CR Belouizdad vs Tadjenant — Ligue 1 2018

CR Belouizdad
CR Belouizdad
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Tadjenant
Tadjenant
9/1/2018Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 4Stade du 20 Août 1955 (al-Jazā’ir (Algiers))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

CR Belouizdad63%
×Draw22%
Tadjenant15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CR Belouizdad
1.88
Tadjenant
0.78

CR Belouizdad creates 141% more chances

Season form · 122 home / 15 away

creates per match

CR Belouizdad
1.69
Tadjenant
0.87

allows per match

CR Belouizdad
0.68
Tadjenant
2.07

finishing

CR Belouizdad+0.00on par
Tadjenant+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CR Belouizdad ↓

Tadjenant →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

CR Belouizdad or draw
85%
CR Belouizdad or Tadjenant
78%
Draw or Tadjenant
37%

Winning margin

CR Belouizdad wins by 2+
38%
Tadjenant wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

CR Belouizdad 1+ goals
85%
CR Belouizdad 2+ goals
56%
CR Belouizdad 3+ goals
29%
Tadjenant 1+ goals
54%
Tadjenant 2+ goals
18%
Tadjenant 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

CR Belouizdad (draw refunded)
81%
Tadjenant (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CR Belouizdad at home — creates 1.69, concedes 0.68 · 122 matches

Tadjenant away — creates 0.87, concedes 2.07 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CR Belouizdad attack 1.69 + Tadjenant defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.88

Tadjenant attack 0.87 + CR Belouizdad defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

CR Belouizdad scores more
63%
level
22%
Tadjenant scores more
15%

CR Belouizdad at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "CR Belouizdad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: CR Belouizdad vs Tadjenant

CR Belouizdad beat Tadjenant 2-1 in Ligue 1 on September 1, 2018.

The match was played at Stade du 20 Août 1955 (al-Jazā’ir (Algiers)).