CR Belouizdad 4–1 Galaxy: Result & Stats

CR Belouizdad

FT

4 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Galaxy

K. Merzougui 90+1'

H. Selmi 70'

K. Aribi 41'

M. Bakir 25' (pen)

T. Sesinyi 49'

3/11/2022

CAF Champions League · Group C - 4Stade du 5 Juillet 1962

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

CR Belouizdad70%

×Draw19%

Galaxy11%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CR BelouizdadExpected goals in this matchGalaxy

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.08

0.67

CR Belouizdad

2.08

Galaxy

0.67

CR Belouizdad creates 210% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 14 away

1.96

creates per match

0.71

0.63

allows per match

2.21

creates per match

CR Belouizdad

1.96

Galaxy

0.71

allows per match

CR Belouizdad

0.63

Galaxy

2.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CR Belouizdad+0.00on par

Galaxy+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CR Belouizdad ↓

Galaxy →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–14%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–19%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–16%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

CR Belouizdad or draw

89%

CR Belouizdad or Galaxy

81%

Draw or Galaxy

30%

Winning margin

CR Belouizdad wins by 2+

45%

Galaxy wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

CR Belouizdad 1+ goals

87%

CR Belouizdad 2+ goals

61%

CR Belouizdad 3+ goals

34%

Galaxy 1+ goals

49%

Galaxy 2+ goals

15%

Galaxy 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

CR Belouizdad (draw refunded)

87%

Galaxy (draw refunded)

13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CR Belouizdad at home — creates 1.96, concedes 0.63 · 27 matches

Galaxy away — creates 0.71, concedes 2.21 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CR Belouizdad attack 1.96 + Galaxy defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 2.08

Galaxy attack 0.71 + CR Belouizdad defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

CR Belouizdad scores more

70%

level

19%

Galaxy scores more

11%

CR Belouizdad at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "CR Belouizdad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

M. Bakir

CR Belouizdad · M

8.3

Match Events

23'

Moagi Sechele

25'

M. BakirPenalty

41'

K. Aribi↳ Z. Draoui

46'

Houssem Eddine Mrezigue

46'

T. Mooketsi← S. Kabugo

46'

T. Boithatelo← B. Osupile

49'

T. Sesinyi

66'

A. Djarrar← H. Mrezigue

66'

K. Merzougui← K. Bousseliou

67'

Karim Aribi

70'

H. Selmi

73'

R. Thatanyane← W. Rudath

73'

T. Dhladhla← G. Mohutsiwa

82'

M. Belkhir← Z. Draoui

82'

A. Bourdim← K. Aribi

86'

A. Ait Abdessalem← C. Keddad

87'

M. Kgomo← T. Sesinyi

89'

Doctor David

90+1'

K. Merzougui↳ M. Belkhir

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CRGalaxy

Overview

77%Possession23%

23Total Shots8

6Corners3

5Fouls8

Shots

23Total Shots8

8On Target2

11Off Target4

4Blocked2

16Inside Box5

7Outside Box3

Passing

77%Possession23%

750Total Passes235

663Accurate Passes135

88%Pass Accuracy57%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

5Fouls8

2Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards1

6Offsides0