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CR Belouizdad vs ASO Chlef — Ligue 1 2018

CR Belouizdad
CR Belouizdad
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
ASO Chlef
ASO Chlef
6/11/2024Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 29Stade de Nelson Mandela

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 106+ matches

CR Belouizdad55%
×Draw26%
ASO Chlef19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CR Belouizdad
1.54
ASO Chlef
0.80

CR Belouizdad creates 93% more chances

Season form · 122 home / 106 away

creates per match

CR Belouizdad
1.69
ASO Chlef
0.92

allows per match

CR Belouizdad
0.68
ASO Chlef
1.40

finishing

CR Belouizdad+0.00on par
ASO Chlef+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CR Belouizdad ↓

ASO Chlef →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

CR Belouizdad or draw
81%
CR Belouizdad or ASO Chlef
74%
Draw or ASO Chlef
45%

Winning margin

CR Belouizdad wins by 2+
29%
ASO Chlef wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

CR Belouizdad 1+ goals
79%
CR Belouizdad 2+ goals
45%
CR Belouizdad 3+ goals
20%
ASO Chlef 1+ goals
55%
ASO Chlef 2+ goals
19%
ASO Chlef 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

CR Belouizdad (draw refunded)
74%
ASO Chlef (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CR Belouizdad at home — creates 1.69, concedes 0.68 · 122 matches

ASO Chlef away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.40 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CR Belouizdad attack 1.69 + ASO Chlef defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.54

ASO Chlef attack 0.92 + CR Belouizdad defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

CR Belouizdad scores more
55%
level
26%
ASO Chlef scores more
19%

CR Belouizdad at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "CR Belouizdad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: CR Belouizdad vs ASO Chlef

ASO Chlef beat CR Belouizdad 1-0 in Ligue 1 on June 11, 2024.

The match was played at Stade de Nelson Mandela in Baraki.