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CPK vs Wofoo Tai Po — AFC Cup 2018

CPK
CPK
CANC
00:00
Wofoo Tai Po
Wofoo Tai Po
11/1/2020AFC CupAFC Cup · Group Stage - 4Macau Olympic Complex Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

CPK56%
×Draw24%
Wofoo Tai Po20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CPK
1.74
Wofoo Tai Po
0.93

CPK creates 87% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 7 away

creates per match

CPK
1.33
Wofoo Tai Po
0.86

allows per match

CPK
1.00
Wofoo Tai Po
2.14

finishing

CPK+0.00on par
Wofoo Tai Po+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CPK ↓

Wofoo Tai Po →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

CPK or draw
80%
CPK or Wofoo Tai Po
76%
Draw or Wofoo Tai Po
44%

Winning margin

CPK wins by 2+
32%
Wofoo Tai Po wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

CPK 1+ goals
82%
CPK 2+ goals
52%
CPK 3+ goals
25%
Wofoo Tai Po 1+ goals
61%
Wofoo Tai Po 2+ goals
24%
Wofoo Tai Po 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

CPK (draw refunded)
74%
Wofoo Tai Po (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CPK at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Wofoo Tai Po away — creates 0.86, concedes 2.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CPK attack 1.33 + Wofoo Tai Po defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.74

Wofoo Tai Po attack 0.86 + CPK defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

CPK scores more
56%
level
24%
Wofoo Tai Po scores more
20%

CPK at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "CPK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

CPK face Wofoo Tai Po (AFC Cup)

AFC Cup returns with CPK hosting Wofoo Tai Po. Match starts November 1, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

CPK host Wofoo Tai Po at Macau Olympic Complex Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.