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CPK vs Taichung Futuro — AFC Cup 2018

CPK
CPK
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Taichung Futuro
Taichung Futuro
9/21/2023AFC CupAFC Cup · Group Stage - 1Macau Olympic Complex Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

CPK53%
×Draw23%
Taichung Futuro24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CPK
1.77
Taichung Futuro
1.10

CPK creates 61% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 5 away

creates per match

CPK
1.33
Taichung Futuro
1.20

allows per match

CPK
1.00
Taichung Futuro
2.20

finishing

CPK+0.00on par
Taichung Futuro+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CPK ↓

Taichung Futuro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

CPK or draw
76%
CPK or Taichung Futuro
77%
Draw or Taichung Futuro
47%

Winning margin

CPK wins by 2+
29%
Taichung Futuro wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

CPK 1+ goals
83%
CPK 2+ goals
53%
CPK 3+ goals
26%
Taichung Futuro 1+ goals
67%
Taichung Futuro 2+ goals
30%
Taichung Futuro 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

CPK (draw refunded)
69%
Taichung Futuro (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CPK at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Taichung Futuro away — creates 1.20, concedes 2.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CPK attack 1.33 + Taichung Futuro defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.77

Taichung Futuro attack 1.20 + CPK defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

CPK scores more
53%
level
23%
Taichung Futuro scores more
24%

CPK at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "CPK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AFC Cup: CPK 0–1 Taichung Futuro

Taichung Futuro beat CPK 1-0 in AFC Cup on September 21, 2023.

The match was played at Macau Olympic Complex Stadium in Taipa.