CPK 6–2 Gorilla of the Universe: Result & Stats

CPK

FT

6 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Gorilla of the Universe

1/25/2026

Primeira Divisão · Round 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

CPK74%

×Draw13%

Gorilla of the Universe13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CPKExpected goals in this matchGorilla of the Universe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

4.04

1.77

CPK

4.04

Gorilla of the Universe

1.77

CPK creates 128% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 8 away

4.59

creates per match

3.13

0.41

allows per match

3.50

creates per match

CPK

4.59

Gorilla of the Universe

3.13

allows per match

CPK

0.41

Gorilla of the Universe

3.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CPK+0.00on par

Gorilla of the Universe+0.00on par

Total goals

Over92
Under8

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes81
No19

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CPK ↓

Gorilla of the Universe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–00%

0–11%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–01%

1–12%

1–22%

1–31%

1–41%

2

2–03%

2–15%

2–24%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–26%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–04%

4–17%

4–26%

4–33%

4–42%

Most likely 3–1 (7%) · grid covers 68% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

100%0%1.5

98%2%2.5

92%8%3.5

81%19%4.5

65%35%

Double chance

CPK or draw

87%

CPK or Gorilla of the Universe

87%

Draw or Gorilla of the Universe

26%

Winning margin

CPK wins by 2+

57%

Gorilla of the Universe wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

CPK 1+ goals

98%

CPK 2+ goals

90%

CPK 3+ goals

74%

Gorilla of the Universe 1+ goals

83%

Gorilla of the Universe 2+ goals

53%

Gorilla of the Universe 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

CPK (draw refunded)

85%

Gorilla of the Universe (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

79%

Both score & under 3

2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CPK at home — creates 4.59, concedes 0.41 · 37 matches

Gorilla of the Universe away — creates 3.13, concedes 3.50 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CPK attack 4.59 + Gorilla of the Universe defence 3.50 → ÷2 → 4.04

Gorilla of the Universe attack 3.13 + CPK defence 0.41 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

CPK scores more

74%

level

13%

Gorilla of the Universe scores more

13%

CPK at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "CPK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff