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CPK vs Chiba — Primeira Divisão 2026

CPK
CPK
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Chiba
Chiba
3/13/2025Primeira DivisãoPrimeira Divisão · Round 4Canidrome

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

CPK70%
×Draw15%
Chiba15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CPK
3.20
Chiba
1.46

CPK creates 119% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 16 away

creates per match

CPK
4.59
Chiba
2.50

allows per match

CPK
0.41
Chiba
1.81

finishing

CPK+0.00on par
Chiba+0.00on par

Total goals

84%Over
  • Over84
  • Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CPK ↓

Chiba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–15%
1–23%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–18%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–16%
4–25%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
84%16%3.5
67%33%4.5
47%53%

Double chance

CPK or draw
85%
CPK or Chiba
85%
Draw or Chiba
30%

Winning margin

CPK wins by 2+
51%
Chiba wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

CPK 1+ goals
96%
CPK 2+ goals
82%
CPK 3+ goals
60%
Chiba 1+ goals
77%
Chiba 2+ goals
43%
Chiba 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

CPK (draw refunded)
83%
Chiba (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
69%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CPK at home — creates 4.59, concedes 0.41 · 37 matches

Chiba away — creates 2.50, concedes 1.81 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CPK attack 4.59 + Chiba defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 3.20

Chiba attack 2.50 + CPK defence 0.41 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

CPK scores more
70%
level
15%
Chiba scores more
15%

CPK at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "CPK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

CPK 4 – 0 Chiba

CPK beat Chiba 4-0 in Primeira Divisão on March 13, 2025.

The match was played at Canidrome in Macau.