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Cowdenbeath vs Montrose — League Cup 2018

Cowdenbeath
Cowdenbeath
Pens
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Montrose
Montrose
7/22/2023League CupLeague Cup · Group Stage - 5Central Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Cowdenbeath44%
×Draw23%
Montrose33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cowdenbeath
1.71
Montrose
1.44

Cowdenbeath creates 19% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 13 away

creates per match

Cowdenbeath
0.73
Montrose
1.23

allows per match

Cowdenbeath
1.64
Montrose
2.69

finishing

Cowdenbeath+0.00on par
Montrose+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cowdenbeath ↓

Montrose →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Cowdenbeath or draw
67%
Cowdenbeath or Montrose
77%
Draw or Montrose
56%

Winning margin

Cowdenbeath wins by 2+
23%
Montrose wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Cowdenbeath 1+ goals
82%
Cowdenbeath 2+ goals
51%
Cowdenbeath 3+ goals
24%
Montrose 1+ goals
76%
Montrose 2+ goals
42%
Montrose 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Cowdenbeath (draw refunded)
58%
Montrose (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cowdenbeath at home — creates 0.73, concedes 1.64 · 11 matches

Montrose away — creates 1.23, concedes 2.69 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cowdenbeath attack 0.73 + Montrose defence 2.69 → ÷2 → 1.71

Montrose attack 1.23 + Cowdenbeath defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Cowdenbeath scores more
44%
level
23%
Montrose scores more
33%

Cowdenbeath at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Cowdenbeath will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Cup: Cowdenbeath 1–1 Montrose

Cowdenbeath and Montrose drew 1-1 in League Cup on July 22, 2023.

The match was played at Central Park in Cowdenbeath.