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Cowdenbeath vs Linlithgow Rose — League #731 2026

Cowdenbeath
Cowdenbeath
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Linlithgow Rose
Linlithgow Rose
2/28/2026League #731League #731

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Cowdenbeath17%
×Draw22%
Linlithgow Rose62%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cowdenbeath
0.88
Linlithgow Rose
1.92

Linlithgow Rose creates 118% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 12 away

creates per match

Cowdenbeath
0.67
Linlithgow Rose
1.83

allows per match

Cowdenbeath
2.00
Linlithgow Rose
1.08

finishing

Cowdenbeath+0.00on par
Linlithgow Rose+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cowdenbeath ↓

Linlithgow Rose →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–112%
0–211%
0–37%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–24%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Cowdenbeath or draw
38%
Cowdenbeath or Linlithgow Rose
78%
Draw or Linlithgow Rose
83%

Winning margin

Cowdenbeath wins by 2+
5%
Linlithgow Rose wins by 2+
37%

Team goals

Cowdenbeath 1+ goals
59%
Cowdenbeath 2+ goals
22%
Cowdenbeath 3+ goals
6%
Linlithgow Rose 1+ goals
85%
Linlithgow Rose 2+ goals
57%
Linlithgow Rose 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Cowdenbeath (draw refunded)
21%
Linlithgow Rose (draw refunded)
79%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cowdenbeath at home — creates 0.67, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

Linlithgow Rose away — creates 1.83, concedes 1.08 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cowdenbeath attack 0.67 + Linlithgow Rose defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.88

Linlithgow Rose attack 1.83 + Cowdenbeath defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Cowdenbeath scores more
17%
level
22%
Linlithgow Rose scores more
62%

Linlithgow Rose at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Linlithgow Rose will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cowdenbeath vs Linlithgow Rose

Linlithgow Rose beat Cowdenbeath 2-1 in League #731 on February 28, 2026.