Cowdenbeath 2–4 Civil Service Strollers

Cowdenbeath

2 – 4

HT: 2 – 2

Civil Service Strollers

10/23/2021

FA Cup · 2nd RoundCentral Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Cowdenbeath38%

×Draw22%

Civil Service Strollers39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CowdenbeathExpected goals in this matchCivil Service Strollers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

1.77

Cowdenbeath

1.75

Civil Service Strollers

1.77

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 7 away

1.50

creates per match

1.86

1.67

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Cowdenbeath

1.50

Civil Service Strollers

1.86

allows per match

Cowdenbeath

1.67

Civil Service Strollers

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cowdenbeath+0.00on par

Civil Service Strollers+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cowdenbeath ↓

Civil Service Strollers →

0–03%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Cowdenbeath or draw

61%

Cowdenbeath or Civil Service Strollers

78%

Draw or Civil Service Strollers

62%

Winning margin

Cowdenbeath wins by 2+

20%

Civil Service Strollers wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Cowdenbeath 1+ goals

83%

Cowdenbeath 2+ goals

52%

Cowdenbeath 3+ goals

25%

Civil Service Strollers 1+ goals

83%

Civil Service Strollers 2+ goals

53%

Civil Service Strollers 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Cowdenbeath (draw refunded)

49%

Civil Service Strollers (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Cowdenbeath at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

Civil Service Strollers away — creates 1.86, concedes 2.00 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Cowdenbeath attack 1.50 + Civil Service Strollers defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.75

Civil Service Strollers attack 1.86 + Cowdenbeath defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 39%?"

Cowdenbeath scores more

38%

level

22%

Civil Service Strollers scores more

39%

Civil Service Strollers at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Civil Service Strollers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff