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Cowdenbeath vs Benburb — FA Cup 2019

Cowdenbeath
Cowdenbeath
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Benburb
Benburb
9/27/2025FA CupFA Cup · 1st RoundCentral Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Cowdenbeath26%
×Draw23%
Benburb51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cowdenbeath
1.25
Benburb
1.83

Benburb creates 46% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 3 away

creates per match

Cowdenbeath
1.50
Benburb
2.00

allows per match

Cowdenbeath
1.67
Benburb
1.00

finishing

Cowdenbeath+0.00on par
Benburb+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cowdenbeath ↓

Benburb →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Cowdenbeath or draw
49%
Cowdenbeath or Benburb
77%
Draw or Benburb
74%

Winning margin

Cowdenbeath wins by 2+
11%
Benburb wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Cowdenbeath 1+ goals
71%
Cowdenbeath 2+ goals
36%
Cowdenbeath 3+ goals
13%
Benburb 1+ goals
84%
Benburb 2+ goals
54%
Benburb 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Cowdenbeath (draw refunded)
34%
Benburb (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cowdenbeath at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

Benburb away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cowdenbeath attack 1.50 + Benburb defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.25

Benburb attack 2.00 + Cowdenbeath defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Cowdenbeath scores more
26%
level
23%
Benburb scores more
51%

Benburb at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Benburb will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Cowdenbeath
Benburb
Paul McLean
Manager: Paul McLean
P. Lovering
Manager: P. Lovering

FA Cup: Cowdenbeath 1–2 Benburb

Benburb beat Cowdenbeath 2-1 in FA Cup on September 27, 2025.

The match was played at Central Park in Cowdenbeath.