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Cowdenbeath vs Arbroath — League Two 2018

Cowdenbeath
Cowdenbeath
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Arbroath
Arbroath
4/22/2017League TwoLeague Two · Round 34Central Park (Cowdenbeath)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Cowdenbeath27%
×Draw26%
Arbroath48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cowdenbeath
1.08
Arbroath
1.53

Arbroath creates 42% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 4 away

creates per match

Cowdenbeath
1.16
Arbroath
1.75

allows per match

Cowdenbeath
1.31
Arbroath
1.00

finishing

Cowdenbeath+0.00on par
Arbroath+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cowdenbeath ↓

Arbroath →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–29%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Cowdenbeath or draw
52%
Cowdenbeath or Arbroath
74%
Draw or Arbroath
73%

Winning margin

Cowdenbeath wins by 2+
10%
Arbroath wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Cowdenbeath 1+ goals
66%
Cowdenbeath 2+ goals
29%
Cowdenbeath 3+ goals
10%
Arbroath 1+ goals
78%
Arbroath 2+ goals
45%
Arbroath 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Cowdenbeath (draw refunded)
36%
Arbroath (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cowdenbeath at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.31 · 64 matches

Arbroath away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cowdenbeath attack 1.16 + Arbroath defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.08

Arbroath attack 1.75 + Cowdenbeath defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Cowdenbeath scores more
27%
level
26%
Arbroath scores more
48%

Arbroath at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Arbroath will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cowdenbeath vs Arbroath

Arbroath beat Cowdenbeath 2-1 in League Two on April 22, 2017.

The match was played at Central Park (Cowdenbeath).