Coventry 0–1 Tranmere: Result & Stats | League One

Coventry

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Tranmere

C. Taylor 83'

10/13/2019

League One · Round 13St Andrew's Trillion Trophy Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Coventry50%

×Draw27%

Tranmere23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CoventryExpected goals in this matchTranmere

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

0.89

Coventry

1.46

Tranmere

0.89

Coventry creates 64% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 19 away

1.12

creates per match

0.95

0.83

allows per match

1.79

creates per match

Coventry

1.12

Tranmere

0.95

allows per match

Coventry

0.83

Tranmere

1.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Coventry+0.00on par

Tranmere+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Coventry ↓

Tranmere →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Coventry or draw

77%

Coventry or Tranmere

73%

Draw or Tranmere

50%

Winning margin

Coventry wins by 2+

25%

Tranmere wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Coventry 1+ goals

77%

Coventry 2+ goals

43%

Coventry 3+ goals

18%

Tranmere 1+ goals

59%

Tranmere 2+ goals

22%

Tranmere 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Coventry (draw refunded)

69%

Tranmere (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Coventry at home — creates 1.12, concedes 0.83 · 42 matches

Tranmere away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.79 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Coventry attack 1.12 + Tranmere defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.46

Tranmere attack 0.95 + Coventry defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Coventry scores more

50%

level

27%

Tranmere scores more

23%

Coventry at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Coventry will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23

F. Dabo

Coventry · D

7.5

Match Events

34'

R. Hepburn-Murphy← P. Mullin

38'

Stefan Payne

39'

Fankaty Dabo

59'

Rushian Hepburn-Murphy

70'

Scott Davies

71'

G. Kastaneer← J. Hiwula-Mayifuila

77'

B. Mason← S. McCallum

82'

A. Bakayoko← Z. Westbrooke

83'

C. Taylor↳ K. Morris

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CoventryTranmere

Overview

71%Possession29%

19Total Shots3

6Corners1

10Fouls12

Shots

19Total Shots3

1On Target1

9Off Target2

9Blocked0

11Inside Box2

8Outside Box1

Passing

71%Possession29%

582Total Passes237

458Accurate Passes140

79%Pass Accuracy59%

Goalkeeping

0Saves1

Discipline

10Fouls12

1Yellow Cards3

6Offsides0