Coventry 0–0 Stoke City: Result & Stats

Coventry

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Stoke City

12/26/2020

Championship · Round 21St Andrew's Trillion Trophy Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 50+ matches

Coventry54%

×Draw24%

Stoke City22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CoventryExpected goals in this matchStoke City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.00

Coventry

1.73

Stoke City

1.00

Coventry creates 73% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 50 away

1.82

creates per match

1.04

0.97

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

Coventry

1.82

Stoke City

1.04

allows per match

Coventry

0.97

Stoke City

1.64

+0.09on par

finishing

-0.26scores less than expected

finishing

Coventry+0.09on par

Stoke City-0.26scores less

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Coventry ↓

Stoke City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Coventry or draw

78%

Coventry or Stoke City

76%

Draw or Stoke City

46%

Winning margin

Coventry wins by 2+

30%

Stoke City wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Coventry 1+ goals

82%

Coventry 2+ goals

52%

Coventry 3+ goals

25%

Stoke City 1+ goals

63%

Stoke City 2+ goals

26%

Stoke City 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Coventry (draw refunded)

71%

Stoke City (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Coventry at home — creates 1.82, concedes 0.97 · 54 matches

Stoke City away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.64 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Coventry attack 1.82 + Stoke City defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.73

Stoke City attack 1.04 + Coventry defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Coventry scores more

54%

level

24%

Stoke City scores more

22%

Coventry at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Coventry will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

37

N. Collins

Stoke City · D

7.6

Match Events

57'

Jordan Thompson

63'

J. Allen← J. Thompson

74'

A. Bakayoko← M. Godden

74'

M. Biamou← B. Sheaf

87'

J. Shipley← C. OHare

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CoventryStoke

Overview

45%Possession55%

7Total Shots11

7Corners6

12Fouls11

Shots

7Total Shots11

2On Target1

0Off Target8

5Blocked2

4Inside Box9

3Outside Box2

Passing

45%Possession55%

410Total Passes482

299Accurate Passes381

73%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

12Fouls11

0Yellow Cards1

3Offsides2