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Coventry vs Shrewsbury — League One 2018

Coventry
Coventry
CANC
15:00
Shrewsbury
Shrewsbury
3/14/2020League OneLeague One · Round 38St Andrew's Trillion Trophy Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Coventry46%
×Draw29%
Shrewsbury25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Coventry
1.25
Shrewsbury
0.84

Coventry creates 49% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 152 away

creates per match

Coventry
1.12
Shrewsbury
0.86

allows per match

Coventry
0.83
Shrewsbury
1.39

finishing

Coventry+0.00on par
Shrewsbury+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Coventry ↓

Shrewsbury →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Coventry or draw
75%
Coventry or Shrewsbury
71%
Draw or Shrewsbury
54%

Winning margin

Coventry wins by 2+
21%
Shrewsbury wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Coventry 1+ goals
71%
Coventry 2+ goals
36%
Coventry 3+ goals
13%
Shrewsbury 1+ goals
57%
Shrewsbury 2+ goals
21%
Shrewsbury 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Coventry (draw refunded)
65%
Shrewsbury (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Coventry at home — creates 1.12, concedes 0.83 · 42 matches

Shrewsbury away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.39 · 152 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Coventry attack 1.12 + Shrewsbury defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.25

Shrewsbury attack 0.86 + Coventry defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Coventry scores more
46%
level
29%
Shrewsbury scores more
25%

Coventry at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Coventry will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Coventry face Shrewsbury (League One)

League One returns with Coventry hosting Shrewsbury. Match starts March 14, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Coventry host Shrewsbury at St Andrew's Trillion Trophy Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.