Coventry 0–0 Middlesbrough: Result & Stats

Coventry

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Middlesbrough

5/14/2023

Championship · Promotion Play-offs - Semi-finalsThe Coventry Building Society Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 51+ matches

Coventry46%

×Draw25%

Middlesbrough29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CoventryExpected goals in this matchMiddlesbrough

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

1.17

Coventry

1.53

Middlesbrough

1.17

Coventry creates 31% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 64 away

1.84

creates per match

1.37

0.97

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Coventry

1.84

Middlesbrough

1.37

allows per match

Coventry

0.97

Middlesbrough

1.22

+0.14scores more than expected

finishing

+0.19scores more than expected

finishing

Coventry+0.14scores more

Middlesbrough+0.19scores more

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Coventry ↓

Middlesbrough →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Coventry or draw

71%

Coventry or Middlesbrough

75%

Draw or Middlesbrough

54%

Winning margin

Coventry wins by 2+

23%

Middlesbrough wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Coventry 1+ goals

78%

Coventry 2+ goals

45%

Coventry 3+ goals

20%

Middlesbrough 1+ goals

69%

Middlesbrough 2+ goals

33%

Middlesbrough 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Coventry (draw refunded)

61%

Middlesbrough (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Coventry at home — creates 1.84, concedes 0.97 · 51 matches

Middlesbrough away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.22 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Coventry attack 1.84 + Middlesbrough defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.53

Middlesbrough attack 1.37 + Coventry defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Coventry scores more

46%

level

25%

Middlesbrough scores more

29%

Coventry at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Coventry will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

A. Mowatt

Middlesbrough · M

7.5

Match Events

66'

68'

79'

83'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CoventryMiddlesbrough

Overview

40%Possession60%

11Total Shots5

6Corners6

11Fouls6

Shots

11Total Shots5

0On Target2

6Off Target2

5Blocked1

5Inside Box4

6Outside Box1

Passing

40%Possession60%

356Total Passes562

285Accurate Passes483

80%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

2Saves0

Discipline

11Fouls6

0Yellow Cards1

0Offsides2