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Coventry vs Lincoln — League One 2018

Coventry
Coventry
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Lincoln
Lincoln
Z. Westbrooke 32'
12/21/2019League OneLeague One · Round 22St Andrew's Trillion Trophy Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Coventry39%
×Draw29%
Lincoln32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Coventry
1.17
Lincoln
1.04

Coventry creates 13% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 156 away

creates per match

Coventry
1.12
Lincoln
1.26

allows per match

Coventry
0.83
Lincoln
1.22

finishing

Coventry+0.00on par
Lincoln+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Coventry ↓

Lincoln →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Coventry or draw
68%
Coventry or Lincoln
71%
Draw or Lincoln
61%

Winning margin

Coventry wins by 2+
16%
Lincoln wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Coventry 1+ goals
69%
Coventry 2+ goals
33%
Coventry 3+ goals
11%
Lincoln 1+ goals
65%
Lincoln 2+ goals
28%
Lincoln 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Coventry (draw refunded)
55%
Lincoln (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Coventry at home — creates 1.12, concedes 0.83 · 42 matches

Lincoln away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.22 · 156 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Coventry attack 1.12 + Lincoln defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.17

Lincoln attack 1.26 + Coventry defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Coventry scores more
39%
level
29%
Lincoln scores more
32%

Coventry at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Coventry will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

26
J. ShipleyCoventryCoventry · F
7.8

Match Events

32'
Z. Westbrooke
64'
J. Akinde← M. OConnor
73'
J. Payne← H. Anderson
87'
M. Biamou← J. Shipley

Possession

64%Coventry

Shots

15Coventry

Pass accuracy

54%Coventry

Statistics

CoventryLincoln
Overview
64%Possession36%
15Total Shots4
7Corners7
9Fouls10
Shots
15Total Shots4
6On Target2
7Off Target0
2Blocked2
5Inside Box2
10Outside Box2
Passing
64%Possession36%
620Total Passes338
508Accurate Passes234
82%Pass Accuracy69%
Goalkeeping
1Saves5
Discipline
9Fouls10
0Offsides3

League One: Coventry 1–0 Lincoln

Coventry beat Lincoln 1-0 in League One on December 21, 2019.

Goals: Z. Westbrooke (32').

Coventry controlled possession (64%) and registered 15 shots to 4.

The match was played at St Andrew's Trillion Trophy Stadium in Birmingham.