Coventry 0–1 Leicester: Result & Stats

Coventry

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Leicester

L. Peltier 52'

8/6/2011

Championship · Round 1Ricoh Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 38+ matches

Coventry45%

×Draw25%

Leicester30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CoventryExpected goals in this matchLeicester

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.23

Coventry

1.56

Leicester

1.23

Coventry creates 27% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 38 away

1.82

creates per match

1.49

0.97

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Coventry

1.82

Leicester

1.49

allows per match

Coventry

0.97

Leicester

1.31

+0.09on par

finishing

+0.06on par

finishing

Coventry+0.09on par

Leicester+0.06on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Coventry ↓

Leicester →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Coventry or draw

70%

Coventry or Leicester

75%

Draw or Leicester

55%

Winning margin

Coventry wins by 2+

23%

Leicester wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Coventry 1+ goals

79%

Coventry 2+ goals

46%

Coventry 3+ goals

21%

Leicester 1+ goals

71%

Leicester 2+ goals

35%

Leicester 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Coventry (draw refunded)

60%

Leicester (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Coventry at home — creates 1.82, concedes 0.97 · 54 matches

Leicester away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.31 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Coventry attack 1.82 + Leicester defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.56

Leicester attack 1.49 + Coventry defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Coventry scores more

45%

level

25%

Leicester scores more

30%

Coventry at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Coventry will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

52'

L. Peltier↳ R. Wellens

60'

A. King← L. Peltier

78'

R. Wood← C. Christie

78'

P. Gallagher← D. Nugent

79'

R. O'Donovan← G. McSheffrey

Coventry

Leicester

1

Schmeiche

3

Konchesky

5

Mills

2

⚽

▼

6

22

26

23

19

A

Wellens

13

Vassell

35

▼

1

2

15

3

31

▼

Christie

11

▼

4

7

8

34

9

78'▲R. Wood←▼C. Christie

79'▲R. O'Donovan←▼G. McSheffrey

Coventry substitutes

24Wood19O'Donovan13Dunn6McPake32Thomas

60'▲A. King←▼L. Peltier

78'▲P. Gallagher←▼D. Nugent

Leicester substitutes

10King7Gallagher21Weale11Dyer12Ledger