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Coventry vs Cardiff — Championship 2018

Coventry
Coventry
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Cardiff
Cardiff
9/15/2021ChampionshipChampionship · Round 7The Coventry Building Society Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 14+ matches

Coventry50%
×Draw25%
Cardiff25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Coventry
1.56
Cardiff
1.01

Coventry creates 54% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 34 away

creates per match

Coventry
1.76
Cardiff
0.85

allows per match

Coventry
1.18
Cardiff
1.36

finishing

Coventry+0.31scores more
Cardiff+0.15scores more

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Coventry ↓

Cardiff →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Coventry or draw
75%
Coventry or Cardiff
75%
Draw or Cardiff
50%

Winning margin

Coventry wins by 2+
26%
Cardiff wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Coventry 1+ goals
79%
Coventry 2+ goals
46%
Coventry 3+ goals
21%
Cardiff 1+ goals
64%
Cardiff 2+ goals
27%
Cardiff 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Coventry (draw refunded)
67%
Cardiff (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Coventry at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.18 · 14 matches

Cardiff away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.36 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Coventry attack 1.76 + Cardiff defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.56

Cardiff attack 0.85 + Coventry defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Coventry scores more
50%
level
25%
Cardiff scores more
25%

Coventry at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Coventry will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Championship: Coventry 1–0 Cardiff

Coventry beat Cardiff 1-0 in Championship on September 15, 2021.

The match was played at The Coventry Building Society Arena in Coventry, West Midlands.