Cardiff 3–2 Coventry: Result & Stats | Championship

Cardiff

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Coventry

K. Etete 84'

K. Ahearne-Grant 61'

D. Goutas 8'

M. Godden 90+6', 35'

9/19/2023

Championship · Round 7Cardiff City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 18+ matches

Cardiff31%

×Draw27%

Coventry42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CardiffExpected goals in this matchCoventry

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

1.34

Cardiff

1.10

Coventry

1.34

Coventry creates 22% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 18 away

1.12

creates per match

1.44

1.25

allows per match

1.09

creates per match

Cardiff

1.12

Coventry

1.44

allows per match

Cardiff

1.25

Coventry

1.09

+0.09on par

finishing

-0.05on par

finishing

Cardiff+0.09on par

Coventry-0.05on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cardiff ↓

Coventry →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–112%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Cardiff or draw

58%

Cardiff or Coventry

73%

Draw or Coventry

69%

Winning margin

Cardiff wins by 2+

12%

Coventry wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Cardiff 1+ goals

67%

Cardiff 2+ goals

30%

Cardiff 3+ goals

10%

Coventry 1+ goals

74%

Coventry 2+ goals

39%

Coventry 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Cardiff (draw refunded)

42%

Coventry (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cardiff at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.25 · 33 matches

Coventry away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.09 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cardiff attack 1.12 + Coventry defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.10

Coventry attack 1.44 + Cardiff defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Cardiff scores more

31%

level

27%

Coventry scores more

42%

Coventry at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Coventry will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

24

M. Godden

Coventry · F

8.2

Match Events

8'

D. Goutas↳ J. Ralls

35'

M. Godden↳ L. Kelly

53'

T. Sakamoto← M. van Ewijk

61'

K. Ahearne-Grant↳ R. Wintle

66'

Jamilu Collins

71'

Y. Meïté← I. Ugbo

73'

L. Kitching← L. Binks

73'

Y. Ayari← L. Kelly

82'

Matt Godden

83'

K. Etete← O. Tanner

83'

C. Robinson← J. Ralls

83'

E. Simms← H. Wright

83'

J. Allen← K. Palmer

84'

K. Etete↳ P. Ng

90+4'

90+9'

90'

90+7'

90+6'

M. Godden↳ J. Dasilva

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CardiffCoventry

Overview

36%Possession64%

8Total Shots7

0.56Expected Goals (xG)0.91

3Corners5

7Fouls8

Shots

8Total Shots7

3On Target3

4Off Target3

1Blocked1

5Inside Box6

3Outside Box1

Passing

36%Possession64%

377Total Passes681

309Accurate Passes589

82%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

1Saves0

Discipline

7Fouls8

2Yellow Cards3

3Offsides0