Coventry 1–0 Cardiff: Result & Stats | Championship

Coventry

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Cardiff

T. Walker 54'

11/25/2020

Championship · Round 13St Andrew's Trillion Trophy Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 14+ matches

Coventry50%

×Draw25%

Cardiff25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CoventryExpected goals in this matchCardiff

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.01

Coventry

1.56

Cardiff

1.01

Coventry creates 54% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 34 away

1.76

creates per match

0.85

1.18

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Coventry

1.76

Cardiff

0.85

allows per match

Coventry

1.18

Cardiff

1.36

+0.31scores more than expected

finishing

+0.15scores more than expected

finishing

Coventry+0.31scores more

Cardiff+0.15scores more

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Coventry ↓

Cardiff →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Coventry or draw

75%

Coventry or Cardiff

75%

Draw or Cardiff

50%

Winning margin

Coventry wins by 2+

26%

Cardiff wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Coventry 1+ goals

79%

Coventry 2+ goals

46%

Coventry 3+ goals

21%

Cardiff 1+ goals

64%

Cardiff 2+ goals

27%

Cardiff 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Coventry (draw refunded)

67%

Cardiff (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Coventry at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.18 · 14 matches

Cardiff away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.36 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Coventry attack 1.76 + Cardiff defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.56

Cardiff attack 0.85 + Coventry defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Coventry scores more

50%

level

25%

Cardiff scores more

25%

Coventry at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Coventry will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

J. Ralls

Cardiff · M

7.9

Match Events

41'

Sean Morrison

54'

T. Walker

59'

S. Ojo← J. Hoilett

59'

R. Glatzel← J. Murphy

67'

78'

85'

90+5'

90'

L. Østigård← J. Shipley

90+3'

M. Harris← J. Ralls

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CoventryCardiff

Overview

48%Possession52%

11Total Shots8

3Corners5

13Fouls14

Shots

11Total Shots8

5On Target3

5Off Target5

1Blocked0

7Inside Box5

4Outside Box3

Passing

48%Possession52%

436Total Passes461

309Accurate Passes329

71%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

Discipline

13Fouls14

0Yellow Cards2

3Offsides4