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Coventry vs Blackpool — League One 2018

Coventry
Coventry
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 2
Blackpool
Blackpool
C. O'Hare 90+1'
W. Jobello 45+1'
M. Godden 41'
S. Kaikai 38', 1'
9/7/2019League OneLeague One · Round 7St Andrew's Trillion Trophy Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Coventry40%
×Draw30%
Blackpool30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Coventry
1.16
Blackpool
0.97

Coventry creates 20% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 134 away

creates per match

Coventry
1.12
Blackpool
1.11

allows per match

Coventry
0.83
Blackpool
1.20

finishing

Coventry+0.00on par
Blackpool+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Coventry ↓

Blackpool →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Coventry or draw
70%
Coventry or Blackpool
70%
Draw or Blackpool
60%

Winning margin

Coventry wins by 2+
17%
Blackpool wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Coventry 1+ goals
69%
Coventry 2+ goals
32%
Coventry 3+ goals
11%
Blackpool 1+ goals
62%
Blackpool 2+ goals
25%
Blackpool 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Coventry (draw refunded)
57%
Blackpool (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Coventry at home — creates 1.12, concedes 0.83 · 42 matches

Blackpool away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.20 · 134 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Coventry attack 1.12 + Blackpool defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.16

Blackpool attack 1.11 + Coventry defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Coventry scores more
40%
level
30%
Blackpool scores more
30%

Coventry at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Coventry will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17
C. O'HareCoventryCoventry · M
7.7

Match Events

1'
S. Kaikai↳ L. Feeney
38'
S. Kaikai↳ L. Feeney
41'
M. Godden
45+1'
W. Jobello↳ J. Hiwula-Mayifuila
57'
Fankaty Dabo
67'
B. Heneghan← O. Turton
67'
N. Delfouneso← A. Gnanduillet
73'
C. O'Hare← Z. Westbrooke
80'
Nathan Delfouneso
80'
R. Hardie← J. Nuttall
90'
G. Kastaneer← W. Jobello
90'
D. Hyam← M. Rose
90+1'
C. O'Hare

Possession

61%Coventry

Shots

17Coventry

Pass accuracy

53%Coventry

Statistics

CoventryBlackpool
Overview
61%Possession39%
17Total Shots5
9Corners3
9Fouls14
Shots
17Total Shots5
9On Target3
5Off Target2
3Blocked0
13Inside Box5
4Outside Box0
Passing
61%Possession39%
499Total Passes303
415Accurate Passes221
83%Pass Accuracy73%
Goalkeeping
1Saves6
Discipline
9Fouls14
1Yellow Cards1
2Offsides0

League One: Coventry 3–2 Blackpool

Coventry beat Blackpool 3-2 in League One on September 7, 2019.

Goals: S. Kaikai (1', 38'), M. Godden (41'), W. Jobello (45+1'), C. O'Hare (90+1').

Coventry controlled possession (61%) and registered 17 shots to 5.

The match was played at St Andrew's Trillion Trophy Stadium in Birmingham.