Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Blackpool vs Coventry — Championship 2018

Blackpool
Blackpool
FT
1 – 4
HT: 1 – 2
Coventry
Coventry
J. Yates 35' (pen)
M. Godden 73'
K. McFadzean 50'
C. Nelson 45+2' (OG)
B. Sheaf 20'
3/18/2023ChampionshipChampionship · Round 38Bloomfield Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Blackpool37%
×Draw27%
Coventry36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Blackpool
1.29
Coventry
1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 52 home / 143 away

creates per match

Blackpool
1.23
Coventry
1.28

allows per match

Blackpool
1.27
Coventry
1.35

finishing

Blackpool+0.00on par
Coventry+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blackpool ↓

Coventry →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Blackpool or draw
64%
Blackpool or Coventry
73%
Draw or Coventry
63%

Winning margin

Blackpool wins by 2+
16%
Coventry wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Blackpool 1+ goals
72%
Blackpool 2+ goals
37%
Blackpool 3+ goals
14%
Coventry 1+ goals
72%
Coventry 2+ goals
36%
Coventry 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Blackpool (draw refunded)
51%
Coventry (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blackpool at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.27 · 52 matches

Coventry away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.35 · 143 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blackpool attack 1.23 + Coventry defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.29

Coventry attack 1.28 + Blackpool defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Blackpool scores more
37%
level
27%
Coventry scores more
36%

Blackpool at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Blackpool will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5
K. McFadzeanCoventryCoventry · D
7.9

Match Events

10'
K. Dougall← J. Thorniley
14'
Viktor Gyökeres
20'
B. Sheaf↳ V. Gyökeres
34'
Kyle McFadzean
35'
J. YatesPenalty
45+2'
C. NelsonOwn goal
50'
K. McFadzean
59'
S. Carey← C. Patino
59'
K. Anderson← L. Fiorini
65'
B. Norton-Cuffy← F. Dabo
65'
M. Godden← T. Walker
73'
M. Godden↳ G. Hamer
80'
I. Poveda-Ocampo← C. Hamilton
80'
J. Bowler← M. Rogers
80'
D. Thompson← J. Husband
83'
Gustavo Hamer
90+2'
J. Wilson-Esbrand← J. Bidwell
90+2'
S. Maguire← G. Hamer

Possession

44%Blackpool

Shots

12Blackpool

Pass accuracy

48%Blackpool

Statistics

BlackpoolCoventry
Overview
44%Possession56%
12Total Shots18
5Corners4
7Fouls12
Shots
12Total Shots18
1On Target7
7Off Target7
4Blocked4
7Inside Box10
5Outside Box8
Passing
44%Possession56%
333Total Passes440
224Accurate Passes327
67%Pass Accuracy74%
Goalkeeping
4Saves0
Discipline
7Fouls12
0Yellow Cards3
6Offsides3

Match Recap: Blackpool vs Coventry

Coventry beat Blackpool 4-1 in Championship on March 18, 2023.

Goals: B. Sheaf (20'), J. Yates (35' pen), C. Nelson (45+2' o.g.), K. McFadzean (50'), M. Godden (73').

Coventry controlled possession (56%) and registered 18 shots to 12.

The match was played at Bloomfield Road in Blackpool, Lancashire.