Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Coventry vs Birmingham — Championship 2018

Coventry
Coventry
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Birmingham
Birmingham
9/27/2025ChampionshipChampionship · Round 7Coventry Building Society Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Coventry47%
×Draw27%
Birmingham26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Coventry
1.44
Birmingham
0.99

Coventry creates 45% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 13 away

creates per match

Coventry
1.76
Birmingham
0.81

allows per match

Coventry
1.18
Birmingham
1.13

finishing

Coventry+0.31scores more
Birmingham-0.19scores less

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Coventry ↓

Birmingham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Coventry or draw
74%
Coventry or Birmingham
73%
Draw or Birmingham
53%

Winning margin

Coventry wins by 2+
23%
Birmingham wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Coventry 1+ goals
76%
Coventry 2+ goals
42%
Coventry 3+ goals
18%
Birmingham 1+ goals
63%
Birmingham 2+ goals
26%
Birmingham 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Coventry (draw refunded)
65%
Birmingham (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Coventry at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.18 · 14 matches

Birmingham away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.13 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Coventry attack 1.76 + Birmingham defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.44

Birmingham attack 0.81 + Coventry defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Coventry scores more
47%
level
27%
Birmingham scores more
26%

Coventry at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Coventry will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Championship: Coventry 3–0 Birmingham

Coventry beat Birmingham 3-0 in Championship on September 27, 2025.

The match was played at Coventry Building Society Arena in Coventry.