Coventry 0–0 Accrington ST: Result & Stats

Coventry

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Accrington ST

11/2/2019

League One · Round 17St Andrew's Trillion Trophy Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Coventry49%

×Draw27%

Accrington ST24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CoventryExpected goals in this matchAccrington ST

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

0.90

Coventry

1.40

Accrington ST

0.90

Coventry creates 56% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 107 away

1.12

creates per match

0.96

0.83

allows per match

1.68

creates per match

Coventry

1.12

Accrington ST

0.96

allows per match

Coventry

0.83

Accrington ST

1.68

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Coventry+0.00on par

Accrington ST+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Coventry ↓

Accrington ST →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Coventry or draw

76%

Coventry or Accrington ST

73%

Draw or Accrington ST

51%

Winning margin

Coventry wins by 2+

24%

Accrington ST wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Coventry 1+ goals

75%

Coventry 2+ goals

41%

Coventry 3+ goals

17%

Accrington ST 1+ goals

59%

Accrington ST 2+ goals

23%

Accrington ST 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Coventry (draw refunded)

67%

Accrington ST (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Coventry at home — creates 1.12, concedes 0.83 · 42 matches

Accrington ST away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.68 · 107 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Coventry attack 1.12 + Accrington ST defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.40

Accrington ST attack 0.96 + Coventry defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Coventry scores more

49%

level

27%

Accrington ST scores more

24%

Coventry at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Coventry will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

36

J. Opoku

Accrington ST

7.9

Match Events

53'

Callum O'Hare

62'

J. Shipley← Z. Westbrooke

62'

O. Zanzala← J. Pritchard

68'

Maxime Biamou

73'

L. Walsh← T. Watson

80'

Kyle McFadzean

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CoventryAccrington

Overview

60%Possession40%

9Total Shots5

4Corners3

13Fouls11

Shots

9Total Shots5

3On Target1

3Off Target4

3Blocked0

7Inside Box5

2Outside Box0

Passing

60%Possession40%

528Total Passes329

406Accurate Passes201

77%Pass Accuracy61%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

13Fouls11

2Yellow Cards0

1Red Cards0

3Offsides2