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Coventry United W vs Tottenham Hotspur W — FA Women's Cup 2019

Coventry United W
Coventry United W
FT
0 – 5
Tottenham Hotspur W
Tottenham Hotspur W
2/17/2020FA Women's CupFA Women's Cup · 5th RoundButts Park Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Coventry United W58%
×Draw18%
Tottenham Hotspur W24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Coventry United W
2.75
Tottenham Hotspur W
1.75

Coventry United W creates 57% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 6 away

creates per match

Coventry United W
2.67
Tottenham Hotspur W
1.17

allows per match

Coventry United W
2.33
Tottenham Hotspur W
2.83

finishing

Coventry United W+0.00on par
Tottenham Hotspur W+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Coventry United W ↓

Tottenham Hotspur W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–15%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
82%18%3.5
65%35%4.5
45%55%

Double chance

Coventry United W or draw
76%
Coventry United W or Tottenham Hotspur W
82%
Draw or Tottenham Hotspur W
42%

Winning margin

Coventry United W wins by 2+
38%
Tottenham Hotspur W wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Coventry United W 1+ goals
93%
Coventry United W 2+ goals
75%
Coventry United W 3+ goals
51%
Tottenham Hotspur W 1+ goals
83%
Tottenham Hotspur W 2+ goals
52%
Tottenham Hotspur W 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Coventry United W (draw refunded)
71%
Tottenham Hotspur W (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
72%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Coventry United W at home — creates 2.67, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

Tottenham Hotspur W away — creates 1.17, concedes 2.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Coventry United W attack 2.67 + Tottenham Hotspur W defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 2.75

Tottenham Hotspur W attack 1.17 + Coventry United W defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Coventry United W scores more
58%
level
18%
Tottenham Hotspur W scores more
24%

Coventry United W at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Coventry United W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Coventry United W vs Tottenham Hotspur W

Tottenham Hotspur W beat Coventry United W 5-0 in FA Women's Cup on February 17, 2020.

The match was played at Butts Park Arena in Coventry, West Midlands.