Coventry Sphinx 0–1 Leicester Road: Result & Stats

Coventry Sphinx

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Leicester Road

4/5/2025

League #55 · Northern Midlands - 38Sphinx Drive

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Coventry Sphinx18%

×Draw27%

Leicester Road55%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Coventry SphinxExpected goals in this matchLeicester Road

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.69

1.44

Coventry Sphinx

0.69

Leicester Road

1.44

Leicester Road creates 109% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 8 away

0.25

creates per match

1.13

1.75

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Coventry Sphinx

0.25

Leicester Road

1.13

allows per match

Coventry Sphinx

1.75

Leicester Road

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Coventry Sphinx+0.00on par

Leicester Road+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Coventry Sphinx ↓

Leicester Road →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–117%

0–212%

0–36%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–03%

2–14%

2–23%

2–31%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Coventry Sphinx or draw

45%

Coventry Sphinx or Leicester Road

73%

Draw or Leicester Road

82%

Winning margin

Coventry Sphinx wins by 2+

5%

Leicester Road wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

Coventry Sphinx 1+ goals

50%

Coventry Sphinx 2+ goals

15%

Coventry Sphinx 3+ goals

3%

Leicester Road 1+ goals

76%

Leicester Road 2+ goals

42%

Leicester Road 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Coventry Sphinx (draw refunded)

25%

Leicester Road (draw refunded)

75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Coventry Sphinx at home — creates 0.25, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

Leicester Road away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.13 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Coventry Sphinx attack 0.25 + Leicester Road defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.69

Leicester Road attack 1.13 + Coventry Sphinx defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Coventry Sphinx scores more

18%

level

27%

Leicester Road scores more

55%

Leicester Road at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Leicester Road will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff