Cove Rangers 0–4 ST Mirren: Result & Stats

Cove Rangers

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

ST Mirren

J. Calvin 85'

L. Douglas 81'

S. Ramos 42'

R. Idowu 31' (pen)

7/18/2026

League Cup · Group StageBalmoral Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Cove Rangers27%

×Draw22%

ST Mirren51%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cove RangersExpected goals in this matchST Mirren

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.90

Cove Rangers

1.33

ST Mirren

1.90

ST Mirren creates 43% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

1.60

creates per match

1.73

2.07

allows per match

1.07

creates per match

Cove Rangers

1.60

ST Mirren

1.73

allows per match

Cove Rangers

2.07

ST Mirren

1.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cove Rangers+0.00on par

ST Mirren+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cove Rangers ↓

ST Mirren →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–18%

0–27%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Cove Rangers or draw

49%

Cove Rangers or ST Mirren

78%

Draw or ST Mirren

73%

Winning margin

Cove Rangers wins by 2+

11%

ST Mirren wins by 2+

29%

Team goals

Cove Rangers 1+ goals

74%

Cove Rangers 2+ goals

38%

Cove Rangers 3+ goals

15%

ST Mirren 1+ goals

85%

ST Mirren 2+ goals

56%

ST Mirren 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

Cove Rangers (draw refunded)

35%

ST Mirren (draw refunded)

65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cove Rangers at home — creates 1.60, concedes 2.07 · 15 matches

ST Mirren away — creates 1.73, concedes 1.07 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cove Rangers attack 1.60 + ST Mirren defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.33

ST Mirren attack 1.73 + Cove Rangers defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Cove Rangers scores more

27%

level

22%

ST Mirren scores more

51%

ST Mirren at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "ST Mirren will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

31'

R. IdowuPenalty

33'

H. Fieldson← D. John

42'

S. Ramos↳ K. Phillips

46'

A. Francis-Burrell← R. Harrington

46'

J. White← D. Oladipo

62'

E. Oppong← M. Barry

62'

S. Mallan← K. Phillips

62'

V. Enem← R. McAllister

62'

C. Maguire← L. Bisland

63'

F. Taylor← S. Ramos

67'

H. Fieldson

75'

L. Douglas← C. R. Mochrie

75'

J. Richardson← M. Fraser

81'

L. Douglas↳ C. McEvoy

85'

J. Calvin

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff