Cove Rangers 0–6 Queen's Park: Result & Stats

Cove Rangers

FT

0 – 6

HT: 0 – 3

Queen's Park

G. Savoury 77'

S. Murray 65', 62', 38', 12'

J. Davidson 30'

1/7/2023

League #180 · Round 28Balmoral Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Cove Rangers31%

×Draw24%

Queen's Park45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cove RangersExpected goals in this matchQueen's Park

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.63

Cove Rangers

1.31

Queen's Park

1.63

Queen's Park creates 24% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 14 away

1.33

creates per match

0.93

2.33

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Cove Rangers

1.33

Queen's Park

0.93

allows per match

Cove Rangers

2.33

Queen's Park

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cove Rangers+0.00on par

Queen's Park+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cove Rangers ↓

Queen's Park →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Cove Rangers or draw

55%

Cove Rangers or Queen's Park

76%

Draw or Queen's Park

69%

Winning margin

Cove Rangers wins by 2+

13%

Queen's Park wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Cove Rangers 1+ goals

73%

Cove Rangers 2+ goals

38%

Cove Rangers 3+ goals

14%

Queen's Park 1+ goals

80%

Queen's Park 2+ goals

48%

Queen's Park 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Cove Rangers (draw refunded)

41%

Queen's Park (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cove Rangers at home — creates 1.33, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

Queen's Park away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.29 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cove Rangers attack 1.33 + Queen's Park defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.31

Queen's Park attack 0.93 + Cove Rangers defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Cove Rangers scores more

31%

level

24%

Queen's Park scores more

45%

Queen's Park at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Queen's Park will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

S. Murray

30'

J. Davidson↳ S. Murray

38'

S. Murray↳ G. Savoury

53'

C. Fox

56'

L. McIntosh← F. Fyvie

60'

D. Glass

62'

S. Murray↳ D. Thomas

65'

S. Murray↳ G. Savoury

66'

B. Yule

71'

J. Masson← D. Glass

74'

S. Williamson← S. Murray

75'

D. McClelland

77'

G. Savoury

78'

P. Jarrett← G. Savoury

78'

L. Longridge← J. McPake

78'

A. Healy← D. Thomas

83'

C. Biggar← J. Thomson

Cove

Queen's

1

4

3

5

11

A

▼

Thomas

8

▼

Thomson

12

⚽

Davidson

42

Boateng

23

⚽4A

▼

Murray

21

⚽A

▼

Savoury

10

▼

1

5

6

15

24

▼

8

4

17

25

▼

Glass

22

Dunne

9

Megginson

Manager: P. Hartley

56'▲L. McIntosh←▼F. Fyvie

71'▲J. Masson←▼D. Glass

Cove Rangers substitutes

11McIntosh10Masson20Leitch23Gourlay16Vigurs

Manager: O. Coyle

74'▲S. Williamson←▼S. Murray

78'▲P. Jarrett←▼G. Savoury

78'▲L. Longridge←▼J. McPake

78'▲A. Healy←▼D. Thomas

83'▲C. Biggar←▼J. Thomson

Queen's Park substitutes

19Williamson27Jarrett7Longridge22Healy18Biggar66Eze17Heraghty25Bannon2Naismith