Cove Rangers 1–0 Inverurie Loco Works

Cove Rangers

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Inverurie Loco Works

7/6/2024

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Balmoral Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Cove Rangers73%

×Draw16%

Inverurie Loco Works12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cove RangersExpected goals in this matchInverurie Loco Works

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.65

0.97

Cove Rangers

2.65

Inverurie Loco Works

0.97

Cove Rangers creates 173% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 3 away

1.30

creates per match

0.33

1.60

allows per match

4.00

creates per match

Cove Rangers

1.30

Inverurie Loco Works

0.33

allows per match

Cove Rangers

1.60

Inverurie Loco Works

4.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cove Rangers+0.00on par

Inverurie Loco Works+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cove Rangers ↓

Inverurie Loco Works →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–17%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

70%30%3.5

48%52%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Cove Rangers or draw

88%

Cove Rangers or Inverurie Loco Works

84%

Draw or Inverurie Loco Works

27%

Winning margin

Cove Rangers wins by 2+

51%

Inverurie Loco Works wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Cove Rangers 1+ goals

93%

Cove Rangers 2+ goals

74%

Cove Rangers 3+ goals

48%

Inverurie Loco Works 1+ goals

62%

Inverurie Loco Works 2+ goals

25%

Inverurie Loco Works 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Cove Rangers (draw refunded)

86%

Inverurie Loco Works (draw refunded)

14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cove Rangers at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.60 · 10 matches

Inverurie Loco Works away — creates 0.33, concedes 4.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cove Rangers attack 1.30 + Inverurie Loco Works defence 4.00 → ÷2 → 2.65

Inverurie Loco Works attack 0.33 + Cove Rangers defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Cove Rangers scores more

73%

level

16%

Inverurie Loco Works scores more

12%

Cove Rangers at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Cove Rangers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cove Rangers vs Inverurie Loco Works

Cove Rangers beat Inverurie Loco Works 1-0 in Friendlies Clubs on July 6, 2024.

The match was played at Balmoral Stadium in Aberdeen.

Cove Rangers vs Inverurie Loco Works — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Cove Rangers vs Inverurie Loco Works