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Cove Rangers vs Heart Of Midlothian — League Cup 2018

Cove Rangers
Cove Rangers
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Heart Of Midlothian
Heart Of Midlothian
7/18/2018League CupLeague Cup · Group Stage - 4Balmoral Stadium (Aberdeen)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Cove Rangers26%
×Draw22%
Heart Of Midlothian52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cove Rangers
1.30
Heart Of Midlothian
1.93

Heart Of Midlothian creates 48% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 14 away

creates per match

Cove Rangers
1.67
Heart Of Midlothian
1.93

allows per match

Cove Rangers
1.93
Heart Of Midlothian
0.93

finishing

Cove Rangers+0.00on par
Heart Of Midlothian+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cove Rangers ↓

Heart Of Midlothian →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–27%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Cove Rangers or draw
48%
Cove Rangers or Heart Of Midlothian
78%
Draw or Heart Of Midlothian
74%

Winning margin

Cove Rangers wins by 2+
11%
Heart Of Midlothian wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Cove Rangers 1+ goals
73%
Cove Rangers 2+ goals
37%
Cove Rangers 3+ goals
14%
Heart Of Midlothian 1+ goals
85%
Heart Of Midlothian 2+ goals
57%
Heart Of Midlothian 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Cove Rangers (draw refunded)
33%
Heart Of Midlothian (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cove Rangers at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.93 · 15 matches

Heart Of Midlothian away — creates 1.93, concedes 0.93 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cove Rangers attack 1.67 + Heart Of Midlothian defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.30

Heart Of Midlothian attack 1.93 + Cove Rangers defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Cove Rangers scores more
26%
level
22%
Heart Of Midlothian scores more
52%

Heart Of Midlothian at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Heart Of Midlothian will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cove Rangers vs Heart Of Midlothian

Heart Of Midlothian beat Cove Rangers 2-1 in League Cup on July 18, 2018.

The match was played at Balmoral Stadium (Aberdeen).