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Cove Rangers vs Hamilton Academical — League #183 2026

Cove Rangers
Cove Rangers
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Hamilton Academical
Hamilton Academical
3/23/2024League #183League #183 · Round 30Balmoral Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Cove Rangers36%
×Draw24%
Hamilton Academical40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cove Rangers
1.47
Hamilton Academical
1.57

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 14 home / 7 away

creates per match

Cove Rangers
1.36
Hamilton Academical
2.00

allows per match

Cove Rangers
1.14
Hamilton Academical
1.57

finishing

Cove Rangers+0.00on par
Hamilton Academical+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cove Rangers ↓

Hamilton Academical →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Cove Rangers or draw
60%
Cove Rangers or Hamilton Academical
76%
Draw or Hamilton Academical
64%

Winning margin

Cove Rangers wins by 2+
17%
Hamilton Academical wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Cove Rangers 1+ goals
77%
Cove Rangers 2+ goals
43%
Cove Rangers 3+ goals
18%
Hamilton Academical 1+ goals
79%
Hamilton Academical 2+ goals
46%
Hamilton Academical 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Cove Rangers (draw refunded)
47%
Hamilton Academical (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cove Rangers at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.14 · 14 matches

Hamilton Academical away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cove Rangers attack 1.36 + Hamilton Academical defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.47

Hamilton Academical attack 2.00 + Cove Rangers defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Cove Rangers scores more
36%
level
24%
Hamilton Academical scores more
40%

Hamilton Academical at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Hamilton Academical will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #183: Cove Rangers 1–3 Hamilton Academical

Hamilton Academical beat Cove Rangers 3-1 in League #183 on March 23, 2024.

The match was played at Balmoral Stadium in Aberdeen.