Cove Rangers 2–1 Edinburgh City: Result & Stats

Cove Rangers

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Edinburgh City

R. McAllister 88'

D. Higgins 55'

S. Shepherd 48'

2/15/2020

League Two · Round 25Balmoral Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Cove Rangers62%

×Draw21%

Edinburgh City17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cove RangersExpected goals in this matchEdinburgh City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.99

0.93

Cove Rangers

1.99

Edinburgh City

0.93

Cove Rangers creates 114% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 97 away

2.64

creates per match

1.36

0.50

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Cove Rangers

2.64

Edinburgh City

1.36

allows per match

Cove Rangers

0.50

Edinburgh City

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cove Rangers+0.00on par

Edinburgh City+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cove Rangers ↓

Edinburgh City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–110%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Cove Rangers or draw

83%

Cove Rangers or Edinburgh City

79%

Draw or Edinburgh City

38%

Winning margin

Cove Rangers wins by 2+

38%

Edinburgh City wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Cove Rangers 1+ goals

86%

Cove Rangers 2+ goals

59%

Cove Rangers 3+ goals

32%

Edinburgh City 1+ goals

61%

Edinburgh City 2+ goals

24%

Edinburgh City 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Cove Rangers (draw refunded)

78%

Edinburgh City (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cove Rangers at home — creates 2.64, concedes 0.50 · 14 matches

Edinburgh City away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.34 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cove Rangers attack 2.64 + Edinburgh City defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.99

Edinburgh City attack 1.36 + Cove Rangers defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Cove Rangers scores more

62%

level

21%

Edinburgh City scores more

17%

Cove Rangers at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Cove Rangers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

36'

T. Leighton← R. Strachan

40'

47'

48'

55'

62'

67'

G. Holmes← J. Sinclair

76'

J. Robertson← B. Watson

78'

C. Kane← C. Crane

84'

B. Henderson← J. Court

88'

R. McAllister↳ J. Masson

Cove

Edinburgh

21

Mason

2

Thomson

5

Balatoni

14

▼

20

6

10

22

11

▼

Sinclair

19

⚽

Shepherd

26

▼

Court

1

McKenzie

5

Ross

6

▼

Strachan

12

⚽

Higgins

3

Milne

24

Fyvie

11

A

Masson

8

Yule

4

Scully

20

⚽

McAlliste

10

▼

Watson

Manager: P. Hartley

36'▲T. Leighton←▼R. Strachan

76'▲J. Robertson←▼B. Watson

Cove Rangers substitutes

2Leighton19Robertson17Redman21McCafferty7Mulligan18Brown

Manager: J. McDonaugh

67'▲G. Holmes←▼J. Sinclair

78'▲C. Kane←▼C. Crane

84'▲B. Henderson←▼J. Court

Edinburgh City substitutes

18Holmes15Kane9Henderson33Harris12Wilson1Beveridge8Brown