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Cove Rangers vs Ayr Utd — FA Cup 2019

Cove Rangers
Cove Rangers
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Ayr Utd
Ayr Utd
1/31/2023FA CupFA Cup · 4th RoundBalmoral Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Cove Rangers38%
×Draw22%
Ayr Utd40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cove Rangers
1.80
Ayr Utd
1.83

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

creates per match

Cove Rangers
2.60
Ayr Utd
2.67

allows per match

Cove Rangers
1.00
Ayr Utd
1.00

finishing

Cove Rangers+0.00on par
Ayr Utd+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cove Rangers ↓

Ayr Utd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Cove Rangers or draw
60%
Cove Rangers or Ayr Utd
78%
Draw or Ayr Utd
62%

Winning margin

Cove Rangers wins by 2+
20%
Ayr Utd wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Cove Rangers 1+ goals
83%
Cove Rangers 2+ goals
54%
Cove Rangers 3+ goals
27%
Ayr Utd 1+ goals
84%
Ayr Utd 2+ goals
54%
Ayr Utd 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Cove Rangers (draw refunded)
49%
Ayr Utd (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cove Rangers at home — creates 2.60, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

Ayr Utd away — creates 2.67, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cove Rangers attack 2.60 + Ayr Utd defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.80

Ayr Utd attack 2.67 + Cove Rangers defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Cove Rangers scores more
38%
level
22%
Ayr Utd scores more
40%

Ayr Utd at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Ayr Utd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Cup: Cove Rangers 0–3 Ayr Utd

Ayr Utd beat Cove Rangers 3-0 in FA Cup on January 31, 2023.

The match was played at Balmoral Stadium in Aberdeen.