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Covadonga vs Real Valladolid II — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Covadonga
Covadonga
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Real Valladolid II
Real Valladolid II
1/30/2021Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 12Estadio Juan Antonio Alvarez Rabanal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Covadonga36%
×Draw25%
Real Valladolid II39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Covadonga
1.42
Real Valladolid II
1.50

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 31 away

creates per match

Covadonga
1.23
Real Valladolid II
1.16

allows per match

Covadonga
1.85
Real Valladolid II
1.61

finishing

Covadonga+0.00on par
Real Valladolid II+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Covadonga ↓

Real Valladolid II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Covadonga or draw
61%
Covadonga or Real Valladolid II
75%
Draw or Real Valladolid II
64%

Winning margin

Covadonga wins by 2+
17%
Real Valladolid II wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Covadonga 1+ goals
76%
Covadonga 2+ goals
41%
Covadonga 3+ goals
17%
Real Valladolid II 1+ goals
78%
Real Valladolid II 2+ goals
44%
Real Valladolid II 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Covadonga (draw refunded)
48%
Real Valladolid II (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Covadonga at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.85 · 13 matches

Real Valladolid II away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.61 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Covadonga attack 1.23 + Real Valladolid II defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.42

Real Valladolid II attack 1.16 + Covadonga defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Covadonga scores more
36%
level
25%
Real Valladolid II scores more
39%

Real Valladolid II at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Real Valladolid II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Covadonga 1–3 Real Valladolid II

Real Valladolid II beat Covadonga 3-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on January 30, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Juan Antonio Alvarez Rabanal in Oviedo.