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Covadonga vs Real Titánico — Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Covadonga
Covadonga
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Real Titánico
Real Titánico
12/11/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 2Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 13Estadio Juan Antonio Alvarez Rabanal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Covadonga62%
×Draw22%
Real Titánico16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Covadonga
1.92
Real Titánico
0.85

Covadonga creates 126% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 97 away

creates per match

Covadonga
1.99
Real Titánico
0.92

allows per match

Covadonga
0.78
Real Titánico
1.84

finishing

Covadonga+0.00on par
Real Titánico+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Covadonga ↓

Real Titánico →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Covadonga or draw
84%
Covadonga or Real Titánico
78%
Draw or Real Titánico
38%

Winning margin

Covadonga wins by 2+
37%
Real Titánico wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Covadonga 1+ goals
85%
Covadonga 2+ goals
57%
Covadonga 3+ goals
30%
Real Titánico 1+ goals
57%
Real Titánico 2+ goals
21%
Real Titánico 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Covadonga (draw refunded)
80%
Real Titánico (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Covadonga at home — creates 1.99, concedes 0.78 · 85 matches

Real Titánico away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.84 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Covadonga attack 1.99 + Real Titánico defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.92

Real Titánico attack 0.92 + Covadonga defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Covadonga scores more
62%
level
22%
Real Titánico scores more
16%

Covadonga at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Covadonga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2: Covadonga 3–1 Real Titánico

Covadonga beat Real Titánico 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 on December 11, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Juan Antonio Alvarez Rabanal in Oviedo.