Covadonga 4–3 Langreo II: Result & Stats

Covadonga

4 – 3

HT: 2 – 2

Langreo II

9/26/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 5Estadio Juan Antonio Alvarez Rabanal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Covadonga65%

×Draw20%

Langreo II15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CovadongaExpected goals in this matchLangreo II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.08

0.89

Covadonga

2.08

Langreo II

0.89

Covadonga creates 134% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 19 away

1.99

creates per match

1.00

0.78

allows per match

2.16

creates per match

Covadonga

1.99

Langreo II

1.00

allows per match

Covadonga

0.78

Langreo II

2.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Covadonga+0.00on par

Langreo II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Covadonga ↓

Langreo II →

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–011%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Covadonga or draw

85%

Covadonga or Langreo II

80%

Draw or Langreo II

35%

Winning margin

Covadonga wins by 2+

40%

Langreo II wins by 2+

Team goals

Covadonga 1+ goals

87%

Covadonga 2+ goals

61%

Covadonga 3+ goals

34%

Langreo II 1+ goals

59%

Langreo II 2+ goals

22%

Langreo II 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Covadonga (draw refunded)

81%

Langreo II (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Covadonga at home — creates 1.99, concedes 0.78 · 85 matches

Langreo II away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.16 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Covadonga attack 1.99 + Langreo II defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 2.08

Langreo II attack 1.00 + Covadonga defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 65%?"

Covadonga scores more

65%

level

20%

Langreo II scores more

15%

Covadonga at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Covadonga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff